Every strategy documented with full context — the market condition it requires, exact entry trigger, stop placement, target logic, and the checklist to run before pulling the trigger.
| Rule | Requirement | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Trend context | Strong uptrend required | Series of HH/HL. Price spending majority of time above EMA. Skip if choppy or sideways. |
| Pullback structure | Two-legged (a-b-c) | First leg down, small bounce, second leg down to EMA. One-legged pullbacks are 1st entry — lower probability. |
| EMA touch | 2nd leg must touch or come within 1–2 ticks of EMA | If the 2nd leg doesn't reach the EMA, it's a different setup. Don't force it. |
| Signal bar quality | Bull bar preferred, or lower-wick rejection | A bear close signal bar is acceptable only if the trend is very strong. Weak doji signal bars = skip. |
| Entry order | Buy stop 1 tick above signal bar high | Never use a market order. Stop entry ensures you only get filled if price moves in your direction. |
| Stop placement | 1 tick below leg 2 pullback low | Or below signal bar low if tighter. Hard max: 10 pts on ES / 500 pts on NQ. |
| Avoid condition | Weak trend, sideways market, tight trading range | If the EMA itself is flat or declining, this setup does not apply. Trend must be directional. |
| Target 1 | Prior swing high — exit 50% | Move stop to breakeven immediately after T1 is hit. |
| Target 2 | Measured move — exit 25% | Height of prior bull leg projected from pullback low. Trail stop on remaining 25%. |
| Exit early if | Strong bear bar closes below EMA | Or if the pullback extends to a 3rd leg — thesis is no longer valid. |
| Rule | Requirement | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Trend context | Strong downtrend required | Series of LL/LH. Price spending majority of time below EMA. Skip if choppy or sideways. |
| Rally structure | Two-legged (a-b-c) | First leg up, small dip, second leg up to EMA. One-legged rallies are 1st entry — lower probability. |
| EMA touch | 2nd leg must touch or come within 1–2 ticks of EMA | If 2nd leg doesn't reach EMA, it's a different setup. Don't force it. |
| Signal bar quality | Bear bar preferred, or upper-wick rejection | A bull close signal bar is acceptable only if the trend is very strong. Weak doji = skip. |
| Entry order | Sell stop 1 tick below signal bar low | Never use a market order. Stop entry ensures you're only filled if price moves in your direction. |
| Stop placement | 1 tick above leg 2 rally high | Or above signal bar high if tighter. Hard max: 10 pts on ES / 500 pts on NQ. |
| Avoid condition | Weak trend, sideways market, tight trading range | If the EMA is flat or rising, this setup does not apply. Trend must be directional downward. |
| Target 1 | Prior swing low — exit 50% | Move stop to breakeven immediately after T1 is hit. |
| Target 2 | Measured move — exit 25% | Height of prior bear leg projected from rally high. Trail stop on remaining 25%. |
| Exit early if | Strong bull bar closes above EMA | Or if the rally extends to a 3rd leg — thesis is no longer valid. |
| Bar | Rule | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| B1 — Mother Bar | Wide range bar — sets the boundary | All subsequent bars must remain inside B1's range. A B1 that is an inside bar itself weakens the setup. |
| B2 — Inside Bar | High and low contained within B1 | Signals initial consolidation. The smaller relative to B1, the better. |
| B3 — Compression | Further compression inside B1 (usually B2 too) | B3's high (long) or low (short) becomes the key trigger level. This bar builds the coil. |
| B4 — Trigger | Closes outside B3's range | Long: closes above B3 high. Short: closes below B3 low. Entry is on the close of this bar. |
| Entry | Close of B4 | Market order on B4 close, or limit order at B4's close price if using a slower entry. |
| Stop — wide | 1 tick beyond B1's opposite extreme | Long: 1 tick below B1 low. Short: 1 tick above B1 high. Safer but compresses R:R. |
| Stop — tight | 1 tick beyond B3's opposite extreme | Better R:R but more vulnerable to noise. Use in strong trend context only. |
| Target 1 | B1 range projected from entry (1:1) | Exit 50% at T1. Move stop to breakeven immediately. |
| Target 2 | 2× B1 range from entry (2:1) | Exit 25% at T2. Trail remaining 25%. |
| Avoid | Counter-trend in sideways / weak market | Best results when breakout direction aligns with the prevailing trend and VWAP/EMA. |
| Fail signal | B5 re-enters B3's range | If price reverses back inside B3 after the B4 trigger, the breakout has failed — exit immediately. |
| Pattern | Trigger | Entry | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H2 Failure | H2 buy fires, price reverses below signal bar | Short below signal bar low | Above signal bar high | MM down or prior swing low |
| L2 Failure | L2 short fires, strong buying absorbs — reversal up | Long above signal bar high | Below signal bar low | MM up or prior swing high |
| Bear Micro-Channel | Tight consecutive bear bars, fades fail | Short every bounce inside channel | Above prior bar high | Until exhaustion signal |